kickAAS

The melting ice at Davos

The ski slopes of Davos in Switzerland are witnessing a melting of hard line attitudes against agriculture reform as trade ministers make a final attempt to get agreement before time runs out. Seasons observers of trade talks have seen the waves of optimism crash so often against the rocks of self-interest that they are trying not to be too optimistic this time.
That said there does appear to be some genuine movement. Robert Zoellick, former US chief negotiator says the US should offer deeper cuts while EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson is busy droping hints that a breakthrough may happen in the coming weeks.
  Meanwhile the crucial G-20 alliance of developing nations, which has India, Brazil and South Africa as key members, is seeking a steep reduction in agriculture subsidies in return for US demand for deep reduction in customs duty. My view? Clearly something ambitious is being cooked up but the chances of a beleaguered US administration and a strongly protectionist French farming lobby from rolling over are still slim. But doomsday does concentrate the mind.

While the rich people ski . . .

Next month's US trade bill doesn't look like doing anything radical to cut US subsidies, unless the newly enfranchised Democrats unexpectedly get the bit between their teeth. According to Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, subsidies will be a bit lower and  involve some  redistribution from large to small farms (60% of which don't receive any subsidies) and towards projects that are good for the environment such as energy conservation.
Meanwhile attempts to revive the Doha international talks to reduce subsidies are continuing and will now switch to the upcoming gathering of rich nations on the Davos ski slopes. Not an obvious place to help the world's poor, but strange things can happen.